Renegade is the 4-1 favorite to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. He faces significant historical challenges as only three Arkansas Derby winners have triumphed in this prestigious race since 2015.
Commandment and Further Ado follow closely as 6-1 favorites, while Chief Wallabee stands at 8-1. Silent Tactic was scratched from the race due to a left front foot bruise, leaving Great White to draw into the race as an alternate entry.
The last favorite to win the Kentucky Derby was Justify in 2018. In fact, Renegade comes off a strong performance at the Arkansas Derby, but success at Churchill Downs is not guaranteed. Jody Demling noted that Renegade’s path is fraught with challenges.
Key facts:
- Only three Arkansas Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby since 2015.
- Commandment is Renegade’s half-brother and has won his last four starts, including the G1 Florida Derby.
- The post time for the race is set for 6:57 p.m. ET.
- The race conditions are expected to be cool and dry.
Demling has successfully predicted the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. Observers are keenly watching how these odds play out on race day.
About The Author
