Oil Prices Before the Conflict
Before the recent escalation in Iran, oil prices were relatively stable. However, the onset of the conflict on February 28, 2026, marked a turning point, leading to significant price increases for both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate.
Immediate Impact of the Conflict
On March 9, 2026, Brent crude briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate soared to $119.48 per barrel. This represents a 36% increase in Brent crude prices and a 42% increase in U.S. crude prices since the conflict began.
Effects on Oil Supply and Prices
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil, typically sees about 15 million barrels of crude oil shipped daily, accounting for 20% of the world’s oil supply. The ongoing conflict has raised concerns about the stability of this vital corridor.
In a direct response to the conflict, Bahrain’s national oil company declared force majeure for its shipments after an Iranian attack set its refinery complex ablaze, further straining supply chains.
Consumer Impact and Price Increases
The repercussions of rising oil prices are being felt by consumers as well. The average U.S. price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.48 on March 9, 2026, an increase of nearly 50 cents from the previous week. Diesel prices also surged, reaching $4.66 per gallon, a weekly increase of more than 80 cents.
Expert Perspectives
Experts are weighing in on the situation. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure remarked, “We’re not there yet,” indicating that the full impact of the conflict is still unfolding. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun emphasized, “All parties have their responsibility to ensure stable and smooth energy supplies.”
Le Van Tu noted that “higher oil and gas prices will affect everyone and our economy,” highlighting the broader implications of the price surge.
Future Uncertainties
As the conflict continues, the long-term impact on oil prices remains unclear. Additionally, the potential for G7 countries to release oil reserves to stabilize the market is still uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed.
Analyst June Goh cautioned, “Do not discount the severity of this escalation,” underscoring the ongoing volatility in the oil market due to geopolitical tensions.
