Nebius stock surged 15% after announcing a deal with Meta Platforms, marking a significant milestone for the AI infrastructure company. The deal is valued at up to $27 billion over five years, with Nebius set to provide Meta with $12 billion of AI computing capacity by 2027. Additionally, Meta has the option to purchase an additional $15 billion of capacity from Nebius, further solidifying the partnership.
This surge in stock price reflects the growing confidence in Nebius, which reported over $1.2 billion in annualized revenue and is currently fully sold out. The recent contract with Meta follows a $3 billion deal signed in November and a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft in September, showcasing Nebius’s rapid growth and demand in the AI sector.
Currently, Nebius shares are trading at $129.85, which is approximately 80% higher than their year-to-date low in early February. D.A. Davidson has raised its price target on Nebius to $200, while the consensus rating on NBIS stock stands at ‘Moderate Buy’ with a mean target of roughly $154.
Despite these positive developments, analysts forecast that earnings may decline by an average of 31.3% per year over the next three years. This projection raises questions about the sustainability of Nebius’s growth amid increasing competition in the AI infrastructure market.
Analysts have noted that the Meta contract is largely bullish for NBIS shares, providing significant revenue visibility through 2031. However, they also caution that at about 54 times sales, Nebius shares may not be particularly inexpensive to own in 2026. Nonetheless, the validation from major players like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta encourages continued investment in Nebius.
The size and multi-year nature of the Meta contract give Nebius clearer visibility on a significant portion of future AI infrastructure revenue and capacity commitments. However, the execution risk on the Meta contract remains an important factor to consider.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding how quickly the contracted capacity will ramp up, adding an element of uncertainty to the otherwise promising outlook for Nebius.
