The wider picture
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is a natural climate phenomenon that triggers a warm El Niño phase and a cold La Niña phase every two to seven years, on average. This cycle significantly influences global weather patterns, including precipitation and temperature variations. As we approach the summer of 2026, forecasters are predicting a potentially supercharged El Niño event, which could have widespread effects on weather systems around the world.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August 2026. This prediction is bolstered by climate models that signal a particularly powerful El Niño is likely to form in the second half of 2026. The last super El Niño occurred during the 2015-2016 period, which was associated with significant global temperature increases.
During an El Niño event, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream southward. This shift can lead to various weather anomalies, including increased hurricane activity over the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic. The upcoming El Niño is expected to strengthen hurricane activity in the Pacific, which could have implications for coastal regions.
Paul Pastelok, a prominent forecaster, stated, “Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter.” This uncertainty highlights the complexities of predicting the exact intensity of the upcoming event. However, Patrick Barnard from NOAA noted, “It’s more likely than not that we’ll get a strong El Niño — 60 percent likelihood,” indicating a consensus among experts regarding the potential strength of the event.
The impacts of El Niño extend beyond just hurricane activity. For instance, a strong El Niño is expected to increase the likelihood of larger waves and coastal erosion in California. Observers are particularly concerned about the potential for increased wave energy, which can be up to 50% above average during strong El Niño events. Additionally, water levels along the California coast could rise by 0.5 to 1 foot during this period, posing risks to coastal infrastructure.
The last El Niño contributed to record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024, and experts are already considering the implications of the upcoming event on global temperatures. Zeke Hausfather remarked, “The El Niño cometh. This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures, though it’s still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year.” This statement underscores the potential for significant climatic shifts in the coming years.
While the ENSO cycle is a natural occurrence, the impact of climate change on future El Niño patterns is not fully understood. Details remain unconfirmed, and scientists continue to study how changing global temperatures may influence the frequency and intensity of these events. As we prepare for the potential emergence of El Niño, the scientific community remains vigilant in monitoring its development and implications for weather patterns worldwide.
