NASA Satellite Crash: Van Allen Probe A Set to Re-Enter Earth’s Atmosphere
Parts of a giant NASA satellite, the Van Allen Probe A, are expected to crash to Earth on Tuesday evening, March 10, 2026, at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT. NASA has assessed the risk of harm from falling debris as low, estimating the chance of injury to be about 1 in 4,200.
The Van Allen Probe A, which weighs approximately 1,323 pounds (600 kg), was launched on August 30, 2012, to study the Van Allen radiation belts that protect Earth from solar storms and cosmic radiation. The spacecraft, along with its twin, was deactivated in 2019 after running out of fuel, concluding its mission to gather valuable data about space weather.
NASA and the U.S. Space Force are actively monitoring the re-entry of the satellite and will continue to update predictions as the event approaches. According to NASA, while most of the craft is expected to burn up upon re-entry, some components may survive the descent through the atmosphere.
Despite the low risk, the overall chance of anyone being hurt by the falling debris is estimated at 1 in 3,200. Observers note that 71% of Earth’s surface is covered by water, which significantly reduces the likelihood of debris impacting land areas.
Mark Matney, a NASA official, emphasized the minimal risk, stating, “The odds that you will be hit are one in several trillion, so quite low for any particular person.” This reassurance comes in light of the fact that debris falling from space is not uncommon; approximately 5,400 tons of material are thought to have survived re-entry over the past 40 years.
The initial uncertainty in re-entry predictions is plus or minus 24 hours, which means that while the time frame is generally established, slight variations could occur. The Van Allen Probe B, the twin of Probe A, is not expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere before the end of this decade.
As the re-entry date approaches, NASA and the U.S. Space Force will continue to provide updates and monitor the situation closely. Most material from the satellite should burn up in the atmosphere, but details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact fate of any surviving debris.
